Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
